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2007
Big 12 Football Preview
by
Raphielle Johnson
It seemed like no matter what channel you were
watching last fall, the Big 12 was talked about as if it were two separate
conferences. “The South is good, but the North…” was the typical refrain from
pundits throughout the nation. But 2007 may be the year in which the North
Division raises itself in national stature due to the improvement of Nebraska,
Missouri and Kansas State. Add in Kansas, and while you may still have a
division that isn’t as strong as the South, there shouldn’t be as big of a
drop-off this season. Along with the improvement of the North comes the stable
of top-notch quarterbacks this league has to offer. Eight of the twelve teams in
the league return their signal caller from last season, and a ninth (Nebraska)
has proven Sam Keller at the reins thanks to his transfer from Arizona State.
So this should mean that a team with a proven
starter should be the favorite to win the league, right? Not in my opinion.
Despite the youth of redshirt freshman Sam Bradford, I like Oklahoma’s stacked
backfield and wide receiving corps to defeat Missouri in the conference title
game. Below are my picks for individual honors, followed by how I expect the Big
12 to play out this year.
Big 12 Players of the Year: WR Adarius Bowman
(Oklahoma State) and LB Bo Ruud (Nebraska)
Best Kicker and Punter: K Jeff Wolfert
(Missouri) and P Matt Fodge (Oklahoma State)
Special Teams Player of the Year: Mikail
Baker (Baylor)
Best Quarterbacks: Colt McCoy (Texas) and
Chase Daniel (Missouri)
Best NFL Draft Prospect: Bowman/ WR Limas
Sweed (Texas)
Coach of the Year: Gary Pinkel (Missouri)
How they’ll finish
North Division
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Missouri (2006: 8-5, 4-4; returning starters- 13: 8 offensive, 5 defensive)
Things were rolling along just fine for the Missouri
Tigers going into their visit to Texas A&M. They were 6-0 at the time (ranked 19th
in the national polls) and coming off of an impressive 38-21 win at Texas Tech.
But the loss in College Station (thanks in part to some interesting play calls)
was the beginning of a 2-5 stretch to finish the year, capped by a 39-38 loss to
Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. But quarterback Chase Daniel is back looking to
build on his national introduction in 2006 to the tune of 38 touchdown passes
and more than 3,900 total yards. Having running back Tony Temple and stud tight
ends Chase Coffman and Martin Rucker back won’t hurt either.
But if the Tigers are to win the North this year, a
run defense that was 58th in the nation in 2006 has to improve.
Junior kicker Jeff Wolfert is one of the nation’s best, making 18 of his 20
kicks in 2006, which should help out the special teams. While the Tigers have to
visit Oklahoma, they do get both Nebraska and Kansas State in Columbia. With an
improved defense the Tigers could be making their first-ever appearance in the
Big 12 Championship Game.
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Nebraska (2006: 9-5, 6-2; returning starters- 11: 6 offensive, 5 defensive)
Even with the graduation of quarterback Zac Taylor,
the Cornhusker offense should be in good hands this season thanks to the
presence of former Arizona State QB Sam Keller. You probably know the story of
why he’s now in Lincoln (former head coach Dirk Koetter gave Keller the job,
only to give it to Rudy Carpenter after consulting with 19 “concerned” players),
and this controversy was a major reason why Koetter is no longer in Tempe.
Keller will have some options to get the ball to on the outside, most notably
seniors Terrance Nunn and Maurice Purify. Junior Marlon Lucky racked up more
than 1,200 all-purpose yards last year as the running back, a good sign of
things to come in Bill Callahan’s version of the West Coast offense.
The defense will have to replace all four starters
up front, but at least the Huskers can count on senior linebacker Bo Ruud to
lead the unit. He’ll be joined by senior Steve Octavian, who should play well so
long as he can avoid the injury bug that hampered him in 2006. The secondary
returns all four starters, which should help the nation’s 73rd ranked
pass defense, improve this year. Finishing 56th in total defense
isn’t what fans have in mind for a program known for their famed “Blackshirt”
defense. There’s room for improvement on the special teams, especially with
Jordan Congdon deciding to transfer to USC. How sound the Huskers are in the
kicking game could be the difference between a return trip to the league
championship game and watching from the comforts of home.
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Kansas State (2006: 7-6, 4-4; returning starters- 13: 7 offensive, 6
defensive)
After the first season of the Ron Prince era, which
saw the Wildcats offset losses to the likes of Baylor and Kansas with wins over
Texas and Oklahoma State, KSU looks to make a move up the standings in the Big
12 North. Sophomore quarterback Josh Freeman returns for what should be an
improvement over his 2006 form, which like that of the team was inconsistent. In
the last four games of the season, Freeman completed almost 65% of his passes,
and not surprisingly the Wildcats went 3-1 in those games. Behind Freeman are
backs Leon Patton and James Johnson, both of whom saw extensive action in 2006.
The hope is for a talented group of junior college recruits to step up alongside
senior Jordy Nelson at wide receiver.
What will be needed for a successful season in
Manhattan is for the offensive line to play as well as the defensive line, which
is led by junior Ian Campbell and senior Rob Jackson. However, the Wildcats will
have to replace linebackers Brandon Archer and Zach Diles. There isn’t much
experience in the group, but there is some talent. Five players who saw time
last season return to the secondary, which is good for a unit that just like the
team as a whole struggled with consistency last year. Special teams should be
good once again with all key contributors minus kicker Jeff Snodgrass returning.
K-State could very well win the North this season, but they will have to be more
consistent if they want to have a serious shot at it.
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Kansas (2006: 6-6, 3-5; returning starters- 14: 6 offensive, 8 defensive)
2006 could be looked at as the year that could have
been for the Kansas Jayhawks. In three road games (Toledo, Nebraska, Baylor),
making one more play kept the Jayhawks from accomplishing some great things last
season. Instead of 9-3 and a trip to a bowl, KU stayed home for the holidays
with a 6-6 mark. Mark Mangino will welcome Ed Warriner back to the staff, who
returns to Lawrence as offensive coordinator after two years at Illinois. How
this affects sophomore quarterback Kerry Meier remains to be seen, but he played
pretty well last season while splitting time with the now departed Adam Barmann.
But don’t be surprised to see Todd Reesing get some time under center as well.
Kansas will have to replace the record-setting Jon Cornish at running back,
whose 1,457 yards on the ground led the conference and set a KU single-season
record. Jake Sharp and Brandon McAnderson are just two of the candidates for
time there. And besides Brian Murph, all contributors at wide receiver return.
Both lines have some holes to fill; the offense has
to replace its interior three starters from a year ago while the defense needs
to find replacements for end Paul Como and tackle Wayne Wilder. All three
starters at linebacker return, including leading tackler Mike Rivera. And one of
the nation’s best cornerbacks, Aqib Talib, will be back on campus as well. His
return should help improve a pass defense that was the nation’s worst in 2006,
giving up an average of 269.4 yards per game. While both kickers could stand to
improve, the return game itself should be in good hands even with the losses of
Murph and Jonathan Lamb. Can Kansas take that next step and contend in the Big
12 North? The answer to that question will depend on how much the nation’s 94th
ranked defense has improved since last season.
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Colorado (2006: 2-10, 2-6; returning starters- 16: 9 offensive, 7 defensive)
The first season for Dan Hawkins in Boulder didn’t
go as many would have hoped. 2006 began with a loss to Playoff Subdivision
member Montana State at home, and this was the first of many frustrations for
the Buffaloes. A 13-0 lead in Athens turned into a 14-13 defeat at the hands of
a nationally-ranked Georgia team in September, and they also dropped an overtime
decision to Baylor. The two wins came in blowout fashion over Texas Tech and
Iowa State. Now, the Buffs head into 2007 with an unresolved quarterback
situation. Senior Bernard Jackson, who performed admirably last season in
leading the team in both rushing and passing, will now take on a role similar to
that of Kordell Stewart (interestingly, Stewart was a CU quarterback himself).
This leaves the job to either juco transfer Nick Nelson or redshirt freshman
Cody Hawkins. Hugh Charles returns for his final season at running back, but
whoever is slinging the ball will need some receivers (not counting Riar Geer at
tight end) to step up. All return, but they didn’t contribute much to last
season’s effort either.
The lines lose some key contributors from last year,
and don’t expect it to be smooth sailing replacing the cannon-legged kicker
Mason Crosby either. At linebacker, senior Jordan Dizon returns, he just may be
one of the nation’s best. He finished 2006 with 137 tackles and four sacks,
numbers which got him an All-Big 12 selection. Replacing three starters from the
secondary won’t be easy either, but with a pass defense that was 94th
in the nation last season that may not be such a bad thing. The keys for the
Buffaloes, who will have to play some youngsters, will be improving the defense
and gaining some depth. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and you get the feeling that
some more “Hawk love” will have Colorado headed in the right direction.
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Iowa State (2006: 4-8, 1-7; returning starters- 10: 5 offensive, 5
defensive)
Former Texas defensive coordinator Gene Chizik
begins his head coaching career at Iowa State, taking over for the departed Dan
McCarney. Before last season’s effort, the Cyclones came close to playing for a
conference title on three different occasions…only to lose their last conference
game of each season. This could end up being a long season for fans in Ames, but
at least they get one more season of the Brett Meyer/ Todd Blythe tandem. The
running game was a disappointment last year despite the presence of Stevie
Hicks, ranking 101st in the country. Now with Hicks gone, Jason
Scales, Josh Johnson and J.J. Bass will all have an opportunity to tote the
football. The key for the passing game will be how much pressure can be taken
off of Blythe by R.J. Sumrall and Milan Moses. If they don’t produce, expect
more attention to be sent Blythe’s way.
With a combined six starters being lost to
graduation, it’s going to be an interesting year on both sides of the line for
Iowa State. At least the Cyclones have linebackers Alvin Bowen and Jon Banks
back in the fold, because they will be needed dearly. Iowa State’s defense was
102nd in the nation in 2006, so expect a lot of the junior college
transfers and freshmen brought in by Chizik and his staff to get a shot at
playing. The kicking game should be solid with the return of kicker Bret
Culbertson and punter Mike Brandtner. There’s a long way to go before Chizik has
the Cyclones contending in the Big 12, but don’t put it past this talented
coaching mind and the rest of his staff. They’ll get it done eventually…just not
this year.
South Division
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Oklahoma (2006: 11-3, 7-1; returning starters- 14: 8 offensive, 6 defensive)
There’s no way that Oklahoma can replace Adrian
Peterson, is there? Well, given what happened in his absence last season they
may not need to. Allen Patrick ran the ball well in his stead, as did Jacob
Gutierrez. And with newcomer DeMarco Murray and sophomore Chris Brown performing
so well during the spring, the Sooners won’t be hurting for options in the
backfield. Add to this a talented receiving corps and four proven commodities on
the line, and you have an offense that’s just about ready to light up a
scoreboard. The one variable: redshirt freshman Sam Bradford, who replaces Paul
Thompson. While Thompson didn’t have the “wow” factor that many associate with
the quarterback position, he didn’t lose football games. That’s the same
expectation of Bradford (along with Joey Halzle and Keith Nichol) in 2007.
The questions come on the defensive side of the
ball, where the Sooners have to replace three starters on the line along with
their top two tacklers from 206, linebackers Rufus Alexander and Zach Latimer.
But keep an eye on junior college transfer Mike Reed, who can wreak havoc on
offenses. Fortunately for defensive coordinator Brent Venables, an experienced
secondary returns to Norman; this is crucial when you remember that the Sooners
have to deal with some pretty good passing offenses in the Big 12 South. Add to
this an experienced and talented special teams units, and you have a team that
could very well end up winning the Big 12 for the second straight season. And if
all goes well, the Sooners could even end up in New Orleans. The key game: rival
Texas at the Cotton Bowl on October 6th.
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Texas (2006: 10-3, 6-2; returning starters- 12: 6 offensive, 6 defensive)
Texas beat Oklahoma, so that should have meant an
automatic trip to the Big 12 Championship game. Well, Longhorns negated that
advantage by losing to Kansas State and Texas A&M, resulting in a trip to nearby
San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl. But in Colt McCoy, the Horns return one of the
nation’s top young signal callers. McCoy only tied an NCAA freshman record with
his 29 touchdown strikes in 2006, and his talented corps of receivers (led by
Limas Sweed) will be at his disposal as well. Jamaal Charles takes over the load
at running back with the departure of Selvin Young, but look for redshirt
freshman Vondrell McGee to get some carries as well. However, three all
conference linemen move on to the NFL, making it a little tougher on the
offense. But this is Texas, so expect some talented options to be available to
head coach Mack Brown, even if they lack the experience of their predecessors.
The front seven should be one of the nation’s best,
with all three starting linebackers returning along with linemen such as end
Derek Lokey and tackle Frank Okam. But the secondary loses three starters;
including two first round draft picks (Aaron Ross and Michael Griffin). Marcus
Griffin, Michael’s twin brother, is the only returning starter to a unit that
wasn’t as good as you would think considering the talent. The Longhorns were 99th
against the pass, but the optimist could note that this was because they were so
good against the run (61 yards per game allowed, 3rd in the country).
How well Texas deals with the inexperience on the offensive line and in the
secondary will determine just how good this team is. Just like Oklahoma, the
talent is there for a run to the national title. But we’ll just have to see
about that on October 6th. Just try not to overlook TCU on September
8th.
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Texas A&M (2006: 9-4, 5-3; returning starters- 15: 9 offensive, 6 defensive)
Is this the year that the Aggies break the
Oklahoma/Texas stranglehold on the South Division? That’s the hope of many in
Aggieland as A&M comes off of their first win over rival Texas since 1999.
Stephen McGee, seemingly raised to be an Aggie since birth, return at
quarterback along with the contrasting duo of sledgehammer Jorvorskie Lane and
speedster Mike Goodson at running back. And in junior Martellus Bennett, the
Aggies have one of the conference’s best tight ends. The question will be who
steps up at wide receiver with the loss of Chad Schroeder and L’Tydrick Riley.
Kerry Franks has big play capabilities, but he like the other options hasn’t
shown much in the way of consistency.
In the trenches, look for the Aggies to be strong on
both sides of the ball. Four starters return to the offense, while Red Bryant
and Chris Harrington will lead the front four. Linebackers Misi Tupe and Mark
Dodge return for their senior seasons, but sophomores Matt Featherstone and
Anthony Lewis should also see playing time. And two years after being one of the
nation’s worst, the secondary should be even better than in 2006 with the return
of corners Danny Gorrer and Jordan Peterson, along with safety Devin Gregg. The
kicking game should also be solid, a prospect that should go hand in hand with
an offense that led the nation in time of possession last year. Unfortunately,
the schedule will be a tough one with a trip to Miami to go along with
conference games at Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas Tech and Nebraska. The talent is
there for a possible run to the Big 12 crown, but the schedule is not.
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Texas Tech (2006: 8-5, 4-4; returning starters- 9: 4 offensive, 5 defensive)
It seems that just about every season we all wonder
how in the world head coach Mike Leach is going to replace so many key
components to his team. Yet year after year, the Red raiders find a way to win
eight or nine football games. So when it’s all said and done, picking Tech to
finish fourth in the South could end up being incorrect come December. Junior
Graham Harrell returns to Lubbock on the heels of a season in which he threw for
more than 4,500 yards and 38 touchdowns. While Harrell won’t have the likes of
Joel Filani, Robert Johnson and Jarrett Hicks to throw the ball to, he will have
running back Shannon Woods. Woods ran for 926 yards last season and also has 75
receptions. Danny Amendola will be the most experienced wide receiver on the
field, but don’t be surprised if some guys you didn’t hear much from last season
put up spectacular numbers. More important than the receivers will be replacing
four starters on the offensive line, especially when you consider that last
year’s group only allowed 16 sacks all season.
Just like their counterparts on offense, the
defensive line loses a wealth of experience from 2006, but look to a linebacking
group led by seniors Kellen Tillman, Paul Williams and Chad Hill to pick up the
slack. The safety tandem of Joe Garcia and Darcel McBath is also experienced,
but the young corners should grow up quickly thanks to what they see from their
offense in practice every day. And while the return game and kicking (senior
Alex Trlica) should be fine, the lack of an experienced punter could be an
issue. But with this offense, the punter may not be on the field much. It would
be easy to look at the inexperience up front and assume that the Red Raiders
will suffer a drop in the win column. But that kind of talk has been around for
a few years, and yet Tech still finds a way to get the job done. Expect more of
the same in 2007.
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Oklahoma State (2006: 7-6, 3-5; returning starters- 15: 8 offensive, 7
defensive)
The Cowboys return most of the key components from
one of the nation’s most explosive offenses in the nation. Oklahoma State and
Boise State were the only two teams in the nation to average 200 yards per game
both on the ground and through the air. Quarterback Bobby Reid is back for his
junior season, and he’ll have arguably the nation’s best wide receiver in senior
Adarius Bowman to throw the football too. But if you think the Pokes are only
going to throw it to Bowman then you’re sadly mistaken. OSU possesses one of the
better running back tandems there is in senior Dantrell Savage and sophomore
Keith Toston. Depth at wide receiver will be something to watch out for, so
opposing teams can’t focus all their energies in the passing game on stopping
Bowman.
The concern will be the defense, which had trouble
stopping opponents from marching up and down the field at times last year. In
five of their six losses last season the Cowboys gave up at least thirty points.
This can’t continue if they are to move up in the standings. All four starters
on the defensive line are gone, but at least OSU returns all three starters at
linebacker. Donovan Woods, the much-traveled (in terms of position) senior moves
into the strong-side position. Woods has been both a quarterback and a safety
during his time in Stillwater. The secondary also has some experience despite
losing Woods to the position change, but this group played a role in Oklahoma
State having the nation’s 84th ranked pass defense in 2006. Special
teams should be one of this team’s strong points, with the return of punter Matt
Fodge and kicker Jason Ricks. Despite the firepower on offense, the defense
along with trips to Georgia, Texas A&M, Nebraska and Oklahoma will determine
just how good the Cowboys are this season.
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Baylor (2006: 4-8, 3-5; returning starters- 11: 4 offensive, 7 defensive)
Baylor was competitive throughout most of 2006, but
their prospects took a serious hit when starting quarterback Shawn Bell went
down with a knee injury in their loss to Texas A&M. The final three games saw
the Bears get pasted in games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, as well as the season
finale against Oklahoma in Waco. Now, Kent State transfer Michael Machen is the
likely successor to Bell, but if he can’t get the job done look for junior
college transfer John David Weed or sophomore Blake Syzmanski to get a shot.
Syzmanski was the starter once Bell went down last season. And while running
back Brandon Whitaker has a wealth of talent, he needs to be more consistent in
terms of production.
Unfortunately for Machen and
the other quarterbacks, they won’t have Dominique Zeigler or Trent Shelton on
the outside, as both have graduated. But there are some options, with the likes
of Mikail Baker and Thomas White back on campus. And the line must improve on
last season’s performance if the quarterbacks are to remain healthy. Baylor
surrendered 36 sacks in 12 games last season. The defensive line lost a lot of
bodies, but they do get back some experience in the form of end Geoff Nelson and
tackle Vincent Rhodes. Linebackers Joe Pawelek and Nick Moore are back and they
will be extremely important to a unit that must improve on its 110th
ranking in total defense in 2006. Both starting corners are gone as well, but at
least the pass defense was ranked in double digits (83rd) instead of
triples. The offense will struggle this season, and despite the returning talent
in the front six (Baylor plays a 4-2-5); there just isn’t enough talent for the
Bears to keep their league rivals off the scoreboard enough.
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