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2007
Big Ten Football Preview
by
Raphielle Johnson
 For most of 2006, the Big Ten had the top two teams
in the national polls, Ohio State and Michigan. The two bitter rivals then
concluded the regular season with an epic battle in Columbus with the home
standing Buckeyes winning by three. With enough ammunition to argue for a
rematch, the Big Ten spent Thanksgiving and with weekend after that at home,
watching other contenders make (or ruin) their cases on TV. A funny (or for a
Michigan fan terrible) thing happened on the way to the rematch in Glendale:
Florida won the SEC. The pollsters gave the edge to the eventual national
champions (my question is how so many changed their minds in two weeks after
leaving Michigan at number two) because they won their conference.
With Michigan heading to the Rose Bowl to face USC
and Ohio State playing Florida, few predicted the whippings that the two Big Ten
stalwarts would receive. For some, this was an indictment of the league as a
whole. But do not weep for the Big Ten, as the league has two teams that can
make a run at a national title this year, along with other talented squads.
Wisconsin, who finished last season at 12-1 in Bret Bielema’s first season at
the helm, replaces John Stocco with senior Tyler Donovan at quarterback. But
having the “Wisconsin Winnebago” at running back (P.J. Hill) and the nation’s
best tight end (Travis Beckum) gives the Badgers as good a shot as anyone at
getting to New Orleans.
A trio of Michigan juniors (Chad Henne, Mike Hart,
and Jake Long) return to Ann Arbor with the goal of getting that first win in
two important categories: Ohio State and a bowl game. Penn State and Ohio State
should also be near the top of the league, but it’s the quarterback play that
will determine their fates in 2007. After the top four, there seems to be a
logjam of teams that can finish anywhere from fifth to ninth in the conference.
Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and Michigan State all have an opportunity to
improve on their finishes last season, but they could also find themselves
taking a step back with a couple of bad bounces. And while there has been
improvement at Indiana, you have to wonder how much of an effect the death of
head coach Terry Hoeppner will have on the program. As we saw with Northwestern
in 2006 following the death of Randy Walker, grief can be a tough feeling to
predict.
Below are my picks for the Big Ten,
including some individual honors.
Big Ten Players of the Year: RB Mike Hart
(Michigan) and LB Dan Connor (Penn State)
Best Kicker and Punter: K Taylor Mehlhaff
(Wisconsin) and P Jared Armstrong (Purdue)
Special Teams Player of the Year: Marcus
Thigpen (Indiana)
Best Running Backs: Hart and P.J. Hill
(Wisconsin)
Best NFL Draft Prospect: T Jake Long
(Michigan)
Coach of the Year: Ron Zook (Illinois)
How they’ll finish
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Wisconsin (2006: 12-1, 7-1; returning starters- 17: 10 offensive, 7
defensive)
Most coaches take some time to get acquainted to
their new position, but not Bret Bielema. Bielema, who was defensive coordinator
under Barry Alvarez, won twelve games in 2006. The major question this season:
will Tyler Donovan play well enough at quarterback with the graduation of John
Stocco? Donovan started the last two games of 2006, wins over Iowa and Buffalo,
and played well in both games. But two games aren’t the same as being the man at
the start of the year. Thankfully, Donovan will have options such as running
back P.J. Hill, tight end Travis Beckum and wideouts Paul Hubbard and Like
Swann. And while the defense loses leading tackler Mark Zalewski, they do return
corner Jack Ikegwuonu and defensive end Matt Shaughnessy. Even though the
Badgers will have to visit Penn State and Ohio State, getting Michigan at home
on November 10th could be the difference this year.
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Michigan (2006: 11-2, 7-1; returning starters- 10: 6 offensive, 4 defensive)
Things were going great for the Michigan Wolverines
through eleven games of 2006. They were undefeated heading into a 1 vs. 2
showdown with bitter rival Ohio State; a shot at their first national title
since 1997 was well within reach. But a funny thing (wasn’t funny for a fan of
the maize and blue, however) happened on the way to Glendale. The defense, more
specifically the pass defense, virtually imploded in defeats to the Buckeyes
(42-39) and USC (32-18) in the Rose Bowl.
Now, a senior class led by quarterback Chad Henne,
running back Mike Hart and left tackle Jake Long return in hopes of removing two
very important zeroes in the legacies as Wolverines: zero wins over Ohio State,
and zero bowl victories. The test will be improving a pass defense that was
ranked 89th in the nation in 2006 without corner Leon Hall, who’s now
playing for pay in the NFL. Also, losing linebacker David Harris and linemen
Alan Branch and LaMarr Woodley are tough blows to this defense. However, there’s
plenty of talent in Ann Arbor to make up for these losses. Luckily for Michigan,
there are also eight home games on the schedule this year. And while this class’
legacy may be defined by what happens on November 17th, the Big Ten
will most likely be decided when Michigan visits Wisconsin November 10th.
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Penn State (2006: 9-4, 5-3; returning starters- 14: 8 offensive, 6
defensive)
The beginning of the 2007 will mark yet another
milestone in the illustrious career of Nittany Lions head coach Joe Paterno.
This will be his 42nd season in Happy Valley, surpassing Amos Alonzo
Stagg’s 41 years at the University of Chicago for the longest tenure at one
school. But forget about that addition to the record book along with the
off-season fracas that led to Paterno’s decision to have every player clean
Beaver Stadium on the Sunday following home games. This team has a serious shot
at winning the Big Ten. The questions: how much has quarterback Anthony Morelli
improved his decision-making; and how does the defense go about replacing three
linemen who have moved onto the NFL?
Inconsistency plagued Morelli throughout 2006,
throwing for the third-most yards in school history (single-season). But in
losses to Ohio State and Michigan, he either struggled mightily (Ohio State) or
was hit enough times to have to watch the remainder of the game on the sidelines
(Michigan). But he’s back with a full year under his belt and some talented wide
receivers (Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood just to name three)
to go with two experienced running backs (Austin Scott and Rodney Kinlaw). As
for the defensive line, losing the likes of Jay Alford, Tim Shaw and Ed Johnson
will leave a serious dent. But they do welcome back linebackers Dan Connor and
Sean Lee, who should go along with a deep secondary to give the Lions one of the
better back sevens in college football. But how well this team does will all
depend on the front four. No disrespect to Notre Dame (who the Lions host
September 8th), but the first test will be at Michigan September 22nd.
And getting Ohio State and Wisconsin at home doesn’t hurt either.
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Ohio State (2006: 12-1, 8-0; returning starters- 10: 5 offensive, 5
defensive)
After twelve wins, the 2006 season ended with a thud
for Ohio State. The lucky whites (Ohio State had won their previous three trips
to the desert wearing white uniforms) didn’t come through in Glendale, with
Florida pasting the Bucks to the tune of 41-14. Now with Heisman winner Troy
Smith moving on and taking the likes of Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez with
him, a new era begins in Columbus: the Todd Boeckman era.
But look for head coach Jim Tressel to go back to
the formula he used to win a national title back in 2003: smart offense offset
by and excellent defense to go with solid special teams. Chris Wells takes over
as the feature back for the departed (and fellow Akron native) Antonio Pittman,
but expect Maurice Wells to see action there as well. Three linemen from last
season return, which should be a comfort to Boeckman, and he’ll also have the
services of pass catchers Brian Robiskie and Rory Nicol. Defensively, the
Buckeyes have at least one starter returning on each level of the unit, most
importantly linebackers James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman. But don’t forget
playmaking cornerback Malcolm Jenkins and defensive end Vernon Gholston. While
some of the household names may be plying their trade in the NFL now, don’t be
surprised if the Buckeyes find themselves in familiar territory on November 17th:
playing rival Michigan with a conference title on the line.
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Purdue (2006: 8-6, 5-3; returning starters- 19: 9 offensive, 9 defensive)
With nine starters coming back on each side of the
football this year, this should be a season in which the Boilermakers make a
move and move up the standings. Well, if football were played using one side of
the ball there’d be no problem saying that. Quarterback Curtis Painter returns
for another season in charge of the offense after throwing for nearly 4,000
yards in 2006. He also returns most of his receiving corps, led by Dorien Bryant
(who led the Big Ten in yards and catches last year), and a two-headed attack at
running back (juniors Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor). But you can’t just play
offense if you want to win football games.
When discussing the defense before 2006 began,
people couldn’t think that things could get worse than the 100th
ranked unit that took the field in 2005. Well, they did…to the tune of defensive
coordinator Brock Spack running the nation’s 114th ranked defense.
And on top of that defensive end Anthony Spencer is now in the NFL. Makes you
wonder how on Earth this unit will improve from a year ago. A pair of solid
safeties (Justin Scott and Brandon Erwin) will look to spearhead improvement in
a secondary that was 104th against the pass last season. And outside
linebackers Stanford Keglar and Anthony Heygood will be looked to help improve a
run defense that was ranked 114th in the country in 2006. Purdue can
score with the best of them, but what about when the points come at a premium,
as they so often do when playing solid competition (Purdue failed to beat a team
with a winning record last year)? That’s the difference between a team in the
middle of the pack and a championship contender.
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Iowa (2006: 6-7, 2-6; returning starters- 14: 6 offensive, 8 defensive)
With Drew Tate moving on, Jake Christensen takes
over the Hawkeye offense. But even with 35 pass attempts to his name,
Christensen stands a good chance of being successful thanks to the return of
running backs Albert Young and Damian Sims. Young was banged up most of 2006,
giving Sims more opportunities to run the football himself. The tandem combined
for more than 1,300 yards on the ground and thirteen rushing touchdowns. But any
hope of having that explosive threat on the outside took a serious hit with the
suspension of sophomore wide receiver Dominique Douglas due to improper use of a
credit card. He, along with fellow sophomore Anthony Bowman were looked to as
guys who could make some plays on the outside. Their suspensions leave Andy
Brodell (a man with some speed himself) and Trey Stross as the two remaining
wideouts with the most experience.
All four starters return on the defensive line
(which may not be a good thing considering how much they struggled to pressure
the quarterback), and middle linebacker Mike Klinkenborg is one of the more
underrated linebackers in the nation. Only Illinois’ J Leman averaged more
tackles per game last season, and along with outside linebacker Mike Humpal
could have Hawkeye fans thinking back to the days of Abdul Hodge and Chad
Greenway. However, both starting safeties from last season move on, leaving a
large hole in the middle of the secondary. Luckily for defensive coordinator
Norm Parker, corners Adam Shada and Charles Godfrey return. Both the kicker and
punter need to be replaced on a special teams unit that was downright mediocre
last year, so growing pains could occur there along with a young offensive line
that replaces three starters. But Iowa is considered by many to be a darkhorse
due to their avoiding Michigan and Ohio State on the schedule. There’s still
that chance, but Douglas and Bowman haven’t helped with their recent
transgression.
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Illinois (2006: 2-10, 1-7; returning starters- 18: 9 offensive, 9 defensive)
Despite winning only two games last year, Ron Zook’s
Fighting Illini gave fans some hope. While they lost ten games, only a loss at
Rutgers (33-0) truly got out of hand. And we all know what the Scarlet Knights
accomplished in 2006, so there’s not as much shame in that beating. Youth was
served in the form of quarterback Juice Williams, who proved to be a threat with
both his arm and legs. However, completing less that 40% of his passes this
season, as he did in 2006, will be unacceptable. Another highly touted
recruiting class heads to Champaign, and look for plenty of connections between
Williams and wide receiver Arrelious Benn. This should open things up for other
options on the outside, and big things are also expected from junior running
back Rashard Mendenhall (640 yards and 5 touchdowns last year).
The defense will be led by senior linebacker J
Leman, who led the Big Ten with 152 tackles last season. Leman anchors an
experienced linebacker unit that will be bolstered by an experienced line that
has improved in each season under the new regime. While three seniors return at
safety, a young group of corners will be led by Freshman All-America Vontae
Davis. A bowl game may still be out of reach for the Illini, especially when you
consider how inconsistent their special teams were last season, but this will be
an entertaining team to watch. It’s been a while since you could say that about
this program.
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Minnesota (6-7, 3-5; returning starters- 15: 6 offensive, 9 defensive)
In Glen Mason’s ten seasons in Minneapolis, the
Golden Gophers went to seven bowl games. But these were usually middle of the
pack bowls, topped off by a stunning collapse (or comeback depending on your
viewpoint) in the Insight Bowl against Texas Tech. Enter Tim Brewster, who takes
over a program that’s looking to replace Bryan Cupito at quarterback. With
Brewster, new basketball coach Tubby Smith and an on-campus stadium on the
horizon these are exciting times at Minnesota.
And luckily for the Gophers they have senior running
back Amir Pinnix back. Pinnix ran for nearly 1,300 yards last season, eighth
best in school history for a single season. Receivers Ernie Wheelwright, Eric
Decker and tight end Jack Simmons will be asked to step up with the graduation
of wideout Logan Payne and tight end Matt Spaeth. Tony Mortensen looks to be the
leader for the quarterback job, but either Adam Weber or Clint Brewster could
end up taking the reins as well. But the key for the Gophers in 2007 will be
improving a defense that was sieve-like in 2006, ranking 113th in the
nation. Defensive end Willie VanDeSteeg may have to improve upon his ten sacks
in 2006 to help take pressure off of a secondary that was 117th in
the nation in pass defense. Three starters return to the secondary, including
safety Dominique Barber. Can the Gophers get back to a bowl game? Why not, but
look at 2007 as the beginning of a journey with higher-profile bowls being the
goal destination.
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Michigan State (2006: 4-8, 1-7; returning starters- 13: 6 offensive, 7
defensive)
The John L. Smith era in East Lansing is over; Mark
Dantonio arrives on campus after three years at Cincinnati in which he turned a
struggling program into a bowl participant that won eight games last season.
There’s been plenty of talent at MSU, but for some reason the Spartans couldn’t
put it all together in key spots (se: last year’s game against Notre Dame for
one example), allowing some analysts to come up with the phrase “that’s why
they’re Michigan State” when explaining some of their tailspins. Well, bringing
in a coach with a defensive background and serious demeanor could be just what
this program needs to eventually make it to the top half of the conference.
While Drew Stanton heads off to the NFL, the cupboard isn’t bare on offense,
especially with the return of running backs Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick.
Brian Hoyer takes over at quarterback, and he’ll have some talented yet
inexperienced wide receivers to throw the ball to. This doesn’t include senior
Terry Love, who can fly and make plays down the field. Replacing the likes of
Matt Trannon, Jerramy Scott and Kerry Reed could prove tougher than replacing
Stanton.
On defense, Michigan State looks to shore up a
secondary that had some holes in it last season; to the tune of the 97th
ranked pass defense in America. While the Spartans have to replace both corners
(this could be a good thing), Otis Wiley, Nehemiah Warrick and Travis Key are
all capable safeties. The linebacker position will be chock full of experience,
which is important considering how much the front four lost from last season.
Tackles Cliff Ryan and David Stanton are gone, and senior Ervin Baldwin will be
looked to for big plays on the end. Brett Swenson returns for his sophomore year
at kicker, but other than that there are a number of questions on the special
teams. 2007 will be a tough year in East Lansing, but don’t expect to hear the
saying “that’s why they’re Michigan State” much longer with Coach Dantonio in
town.
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Indiana (2006: 5-7, 3-5; returning starters- 16: 8 offensive, 8 defensive)
At the end of 2006, many were looking at Indiana as
a team that could make some noise in 2007, especially with their duo of
quarterback Kellen Lewis and wideout James Hardy. Unfortunately for Indiana (and
college football), they lost their head coach this off-season when Terry
Hoeppner passed away after an 18-month battle with brain cancer. From a football
perspective, having offensive coordinator Bill Lynch (now the head coach as
well) around to lead the team through spring drills helps a little with the
transition. Lewis led the team in rushing last season, but the goal in 2007 is
for Marcus Thigpen to make sure that doesn’t happen again. Also look for
sophomore Demetrius McCray and fullback Josiah Sears to get carries. Outside,
players such as James Bailey and Ray Fisher will have opportunities to make
plays due to the attention that will be sent the way of James Hardy. And four
starters return on the offensive line, which should help with the unit’s
cohesion.
Where’s the improvement needed? Look no further than
the defense, which was 109th in the nation last season. Three
starters each return on the line and at linebacker, led by end Jammie Kirlew and
middle linebacker Adam McClurg. And the secondary will return three players with
starting experience in 2006, including both corners (Tracy Porter and Leslie
Majors). On special teams, the Hoosiers have two of the best return threats in
the business in Thigpen (kicks) and Porter (punts), and Austin Starr performed
well at kicker in 2006 (12-for-15). While the offense has enough firepower to
put points on the board, look for the defense to once again struggle to keep
opponents out of the end zone.
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Northwestern (2006: 4-8, 2-6; returning starters- 15: 7 offensive, 8
defensive)
If there’s any school that could understand what
Indiana’s going through, it would be Northwestern. The Wildcats had to deal with
the passing of their head coach, Randy Walker, meaning that former NU great Pat
Fitzgerald would take over the program. What ensued was a topsy-turvy season
that could best be summed up by the Wildcats’ production at the quarterback
position. Mike Kafka and C.J. Bacher were just two of the players who saw time
there last season, and they’re both back for more in 2007. The good thing for
whoever takes the reins is that Tyrell Sutton is back for his junior year. The
Ohio native ran for over 1,000 yards for the second straight season despite
increased attention from defenses along with various nicks and bruises. Sutton
getting back to his 2005 form (1,474 yards and 16 scores) will depend on
consistency at quarterback. Six players boast starting experience at wide
receiver, which should help take away some of the sting due to the graduation of
Shaun Herbert.
Thanks to the amount of depth they have at
linebacker, the Wildcats can now commit to the 3-4 defense, and look to Adam
Kadela and Eddie Simpson to lead that unit. The line also has a wealth of
experience, and senior cornerbacks Deante Battle and Sherrick McManis will
anchor an experienced secondary. The special teams will need both a new kicker
and punter, but the return game should be decent with the likes of McManis, Omar
Conteh and Brendan Smith available. With consistent play from the quarterback
position along with some defensive improvement, the Wildcats could make a run at
a bowl game this year. But after last year’s adventures under center, it may be
better to take a “wait and see” approach.
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