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2007 Mountain West Preview
Title comes could come down to November 8th
by
Raphielle Johnson
It’s been three going on four years since Utah
became the first non-BCS conference member to play in a BCS bowl game. Since
that Fiesta Bowl rout of Pittsburgh, the Mountain West hasn’t mounted a serious
charge at another bid. Well, that could change in 2007 as TCU and BYU have
enough talent (and some headline games outside of the conference) to make a run
this season. However, don’t think that this means the Mountain West is a
two-horse race, as teams such as Utah, Wyoming, Colorado State and New Mexico
have some talent coming back to campus as well. Unfortunately for the Utes, they
were hit hard by some serious injuries to key players in their opener at Oregon
State (a 24-7 loss). How this affects their standing in the MWC remains to be
seen.
After the logjam in the middle, there’s San Diego
State and UNLV, both of whom are in the second (Chuck Long at SDSU) and third
years (Mike Sanford at UNLV) of new regimes, respectively. Lastly, the longest
tenured coach in the conference, Air Force’s Fisher DeBerry, retired at the end
of 2006. AFA graduate Troy Calhoun brings his NFL coaching experience back to
Colorado Springs, and will add some new wrinkles to the Falcon offense. While
most of the “BCS crasher” talk will focus on the WAC, don’t be surprised if
either the Horned Frogs or Cougars claim a bid for themselves. Below is a quick
preview of the Mountain West and how the standings will shake out at the end of
the season.
Players of the Year: RB Rodney Ferguson (New
Mexico) and DE Tommy Blake (TCU)
Best Kicker and Punter: K Louie Sakoda (Utah)
and P Jimmie Kaylor (Colorado State)
Special Teams Player of the Year: DeAndre
Wright (New Mexico)
Best Quarterbacks: Brian Johnson (Utah) and
Shaun Carney (Air Force)
Best NFL Prospect: Blake
Coach of the Year: Gary Patterson (TCU)
How They’ll Finish
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TCU (2006: 11-2, 6-2; returning starters- 15: 6 offensive, 9 defensive)
The Horned Frogs, with nine starters returning, will
have one of the nation’s best defenses. Most of the talk has been focused on
bookends Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz on the line, and rightfully so. But don’t
forget about two-time All-Mountain West performer Jason Phillips at middle
linebacker. A unit that was the second best in America last season has a chance
to move up a spot in those rankings. On offense, TCU will have to replace a
little bit more. Quarterback Jeff Ballard and running backs Lonta Hobbs
(graduation) and Detrick James (dismissed from the team) are gone, but look for
All-MWC running back Aaron Brown to carry the load. Despite the number of
starters gone on offense, Coach Patterson likes to play his youngsters early so
there is plenty of experience coming back. The key game to a BCS run will be at
Texas on September 8th, but the most important game of their season
will be at BYU on November 8th.
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BYU (2006: 11-2, 8-0; returning starters- 13: 6 offensive, 7 defensive)
After capping 2006 with a whipping of Oregon in the
Las Vegas Bowl, Bronco Mendenhall’s program looks to take that next step in
returning Brigham Young football to a level of national prominence.
Unfortunately for the Cougars, they have to replace John Beck and his 11,021
career passing yards. Max Hall, who due to his LDS mission and a transfer year
(from Arizona State) hasn’t taken a snap in an actual game since 2003 looks to
be the starting quarterback at this point. BYU also has to replace the school’s
all-time leading rusher in Curtis Brown, but look for this to be a position
handled by committee. The defense will switch from the 3-3-5 to a 3-4 look, and
linebacker depth is the reason for the change. Kelly Poppinga and Terrance Hooks
are just two of the many players who can make an impact at the second level of
the defense. Freshman All-American Jan Jorgensen will anchor the defensive line,
and the defensive unit as a whole should be able to step up their play as Hall
gets comfortable at quarterback. For the second straight season, we can say that
BYU can play some defense. And this is a departure from the glory years.
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Utah (2006: 8-5, 5-3; returning starters- 15: 10 offensive, 5 defensive)
Just when the Utes were able to welcome back
quarterback Brian Johnson after he missed 2006 with a medical redshirt, he
separates his shoulder in the season opener at Oregon State. For the next month
or so, Tommy Grady takes over the job. Even worse are the losses of running back
Matt Asiata (broken leg) and linebacker Matt Martinez (torn ACL), both of whom
will miss the entire season. Ray Stowers, Darrell Mack and Darryl Poston will
share the load a running back, but the strength of this offense was at receiver
even before the injury to Asiata. Brian Casteel leads a talented group of wide
receivers who can make plays. On defense, the Utes will have to replace many of
the key contributors on the line as well as All-American defensive back Eric
Weddle. Even with Weddle, the Utes were 80th in the nation against
the pass, so the lack of experience could be a serious issue. But there is
talent in Salt Lake City. Just give them some time to get their feet wet, and
hopefully the remaining players can stay healthy.
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Wyoming (2006: 6-6, 5-3; returning starters- 12: 7 offensive, 5 defensive)
The keyword for Wyoming in 2007 will be consistency.
After a 1-4 start in 2006 that included two overtime losses, head coach Joe
Glenn went with youngster Karsten Sween at quarterback. With the Cowboys
finishing the year 5-2, it’s hard to argue with the results. Now with Sween a
year older and a year wiser, a passing offense that was ranked 85th
last season should improve. Juniors Wynel Seldon and Devin Moore will carry the
load on the ground, but three starters need to be replaced on the offensive
line. On defense, the young line will have to be carried in the early going by
the likes of linebacker Ward Dobbs and corners Michael Median and Julius
Stinson. With six starters from last season’s unit gone, duplicating their 9th
ranking nationally could be tough. But don’t expect to have an easy time
throwing the football. By December, this fourth place prediction could end up
being seen as too low for the Cowboys.
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Colorado State (2006: 4-8, 1-7; returning starters- 18: 9 offensive, 9
defensive)
After seemingly finding themselves at or near the
top of the conference standings for the longest time, the Rams are looking to
rebound from their second four-win campaign in the last three seasons. Senior
Caleb Hanie returns at quarterback, but he needs to improve his touchdown to
interception tally (11 touchdowns to 12 interceptions in 2006) if the Rams are
to have a shot at bowl eligibility. Also, the offense must do better than their
30 fourth quarter points in 2006, one of the major issues in their season-ending
seven game skid. Look for an experienced group of wide receivers to help Hanie
and the offense improve their numbers. Defensively, the Rams need to improve
their run defense, which ranked 80th nationally last season. If the
defense can continue its improvement and running back Kyle Bell is 100%
following an ACL injury that robbed him of 2006, the Rams could be a sleeper in
the MWC.
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New Mexico (2006: 6-7, 4-4; returning starters- 18: 8 offensive, 10
defensive)
Last season marked the sixth straight year of bowl
eligibility for the Lobos, the only team in this league that can make that
claim. While sophomore Donovan Porterie returns at quarterback, UNM will have
Rodney Ferguson back to carry the football. Ferguson ran for more than 1,200
yards in 2006, and should be good for at least that much in 2007. The key to
Porterie being able to take advantage of a good group of receivers is the line,
which gave up 43 sacks in 2006. While they were efficient in run blocking, pass
protection was sieve-like at times. Thanks to the strategy of playing many
players on defense, there’s a lot of experience in the UNM two-deep. This will
be key as a unit that was 80th overall and 100th against
the pass looks to improve. Unlike the years of the “wacky WAC” and the
beginnings of the MWC, teams that expect to compete for titles can and will play
tough defense. That’s what separates the Lobos from the top teams in this
league.
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San Diego State (2006: 3-9, 3-5; returning starters- 14: 10 offensive, 4
defensive)
2006 was a year in which first-year head coach Chuck
Long wanted to win immediately, but no one within the program expected the
Aztecs to be hit so hard by the injury bug. What comes in 2007 is a year under
the team’s belt with Long and the hope that they can stay healthy. A pair of
Kevin’s- O’Connell and Craft, will look to take over a quarterback positions
that was downright inept in 2006. SDSU signal-callers combined to throw
seventeen picks last season, so look for a deep stable of running backs to
shoulder the load. Unfortunately for SDSU, the offense as a whole struggled in
2006, ranking 108th in the nation. On defense, stopping the run will
be of utmost importance as this unit was 106th against the run. At
least they were 17th against the pass, but that was with a secondary
giving up 22 touchdown passes. With the lack of depth on defense and the many
questions on offense, the Aztecs will have to improve poor special teams if they
want to improve on 2006’s three wins.
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Air Force (2006: 4-8, 3-5; returning starters- 10: 4 offensive, 6 defensive)
After watching the likes of Nebraska and Syracuse go
from option-heavy offenses to the West Coast system, it’ll be interesting to see
the effect of what Troy Calhoun will add to the Air Force attack in his first
season in charge. Now, unlike those other two programs, Calhoun won’t be
completely overhauling the system, but a program known more for its ground
attack will look to put the ball in the air more often. The key word: balance.
And in senior Shaun Carney, the Falcons will have the type of leader and
quarterback needed to help implement these augmentations. Going to the 3-4 on
defense will be an intriguing switch as well, with the defensive line being the
deepest position in the unit. At linebacker, all-conference selection Drew
Fowler returns for his final season after leading the MWC with 123 tackles.
After South Carolina State in the opener, the Falcons will face Utah, TCU, BYU
and Navy in their four, with TCU being the only home game. Air Force will take
their lumps in 2007, but it could lead to a flight up the conference standings
in 2008.
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UNLV (2006: 2-10, 1-7; returning starters- 14: 7 offensive, 7 defensive)
With junior quarterback Rocky Hinds back and healthy
following playing most of 2006 with a partially torn ACL, the UNLV passing game
should be just fine. It’s running the ball that could be the problem. The Rebels
averaged less than ninety yards per game on the ground, and there are a number
of options in the backfield. Whether or not players such as David Peeples, Frank
Summers and Ronnie Smith provide the right answers is the question. On defense,
the conference’s worst unit in 2006 looks to rebound on the backs of an
experienced defensive line, which is led by a junior, defensive end Jeremy
Geathers. At linebacker, the Runnin’ Rebels have one of the best in senior Beau
Bell, who racked up 76 tackles in seven games last year. But with the loss of
corner Eric Wright to the NFL, one of the nation’s worst pass defenses doesn’t
stand to get any better this year. Expect it to be another long year in Las
Vegas.
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