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2007 WAC Football Preview
Can Hawaii and/or Boise State make BCS run?
by
Raphielle Johnson
 2006 was a very good year for the Western Athletic
Conference. Boise State went undefeated in 2006, becoming the first WAC member
to make a BCS bowl in this new era. Of course, the Broncos went on to capture
the nation’s imagination with a classic 43-42 overtime win in the Fiesta Bowl
over Oklahoma. Hawaii won eleven games last year thanks in large part to the
right arm of quarterback Colt Brennan. Brennan’s 58 touchdown passes set the
NCAA record, leading many to believe that he’s got a shot to get to New York for
the Heisman ceremonies in December. San Jose State and Nevada also went to
bowls, helping the league finish 3-1 in those games. And the one defeat, Nevada
losing to Miami in the MPC Computers Bowl, was a one-point defeat.
Now comes the hard part for this (or any league)
conference: what to do for an encore. Along with Brennan as a Heisman candidate
is Boise State running back Ian Johnson, who ran for 1,713 yards in 2006. And
New Mexico State may have one of the nation’s best quarterbacks that few people
know in junior Chase Holbrook. While both he and Brennan have been labeled as
“system quarterbacks”, Holbrook is yet another signal caller who can flat-out
sling it. And two coaching changes in the league, with Derek Dooley (yes,
Vince’s son) taking over at Louisiana Tech and longtime Washington State
assistant Rob Akey replacing Dennis Erickson at Idaho. Hawaii has the best shot
at going undefeated this season, especially with Boise State having to visit the
islands on November 23rd, but their non-conference schedule
(including games against Northern Colorado and Charleston Southern) could cost
them a shot at a BCS bowl. Here’s a quick breakdown of the conference, and how I
see the standings shaping up come December.
Players of the Year: QB Colt Brennan (Hawaii)
and CB Dwight Lowery (San Jose State)
Best Kicker and Punter: K Clint Stitser
(Fresno State) and P Waylon Prather (San Jose State)
Special Teams Player of the Year: Dwayne
Sanders (Nevada)
Best Cornerbacks: Lowery and Christopher
Owens (San Jose State)
Best NFL Prospects: Brennan and RB Ian
Johnson (Boise State)
Coach of the Year: June Jones (Hawaii)
How they’ll finish
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Hawaii (2006: 11-3, 7-1; returning starters- 14: 6 offensive, 8 defensive)
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Colt
Brennan could end up breaking his own NCAA single-season touchdown record in his
last year on campus. Brennan threw 58 in 2006, so who’s to say that 65 is out of
the question? The key, even though the Warriors don’t run the ball much, will be
replacing backs Nate Ilaoa and Regan Mauia, both of whom were picked up by NFL
franchises this past spring. Kealoha Pilares, a transfer from Air Force, and
Jason Laumoli will get the opportunity to replace those two in the backfield.
Also, the line has to replace three starters from a year ago. On defense, eight
starters return to a unit that was 105th against the pass despite
seeing a plethora of throws in practice thanks to their offensive system. The
switch to the 4-3 after playing a 3-4 under Jerry Glanville will mean that one
of the four returning starters at linebacker takes a seat, but that’s also good
news for their depth. And in the defensive backfield, three starters return, led
by corners Gerard Lewis and Myron Newberry. Whether or not the Warriors can get
to a BCS game is up in the air, but look for a lot of points and wins in
Honolulu this year.
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Boise State (2006: 13-0, 8-0; returning starters- 11: 5 offensive, 6
defensive)
2006 for the Boise State program ended in a fashion
that you’d think was only possible in a movie. Good point, as there will be a
documentary on their season coming soon. But while many across the nation became
enamored with a program that according to some had just shown up on the national
landscape, the Broncos have won at least eleven games in four of the past five
seasons. 2007 is off to a good start thanks to a 56-7 pasting of Weber State,
but that was expected. Now it’s all about dealing with having that “national”
bull’s-eye, which is of higher intensity than the simple “they’re the best team
in our conference” bull’s-eye.
Ian Johnson is back for his junior season, which is
good news considering the losses of quarterback Jared Zabransky and their top
four wide receivers from 2006. On defense, the Broncos will be led by the
experienced Marty Tadman at safety, but there are some key losses there to with
the likes of Korey Hall and Andrew Browning moving on. There will be a more
intense spotlight on this program, but head coach Chris Peterson and his staff
has the ability to navigate this team through the new challenges.
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Nevada (2006: 8-5, 5-3; returning starters- 12: 5 offensive, 7 defensive)
Just like Boise State, the Wolf Pack has the
unenviable task of replacing on of the best quarterbacks in the history of their
program with the graduation of Jeff Rowe. Head coach Chris Ault will give the
keys to the offense that features the “Pistol” formation to sophomore Nick
Graziano, but neither he nor backups Colin Kaepernick and Tyler Lantrip has much
experience calling the shots. Luke Lippincott will have to help replace running
back Robert Hubbard, but starting wide receivers Marko Mitchell and Mike McCoy
are back in Reno. The defense has the opportunity to improve on its numbers from
2006 (30th in scoring defense) thanks to the return of all three
starters at linebacker and All-WAC selection Matt Hines at nose guard. And with
the amount of youth on offense, an improved defense will be necessary until
those guys get their feet wet.
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Fresno State (2006: 4-8, 4-4; returning starters- 13: 7 offensive, 6
defensive)
After four straight seasons with at least eight
wins, the Bulldogs only won four games in 2006. For a program with the
reputation of taking on BCS conference opposition regardless of the venue,
Fresno State lost all four non-conference games by an average of thirteen points
per loss. Of course, you have to point out that the margin of defeat is skewed
by a 38-6 loss at LSU. So, with junior quarterback Tom Brandstater having a full
season under his belt that one extra play FSU failed to make in games against
the likes of Oregon, Washington and Colorado State could be made in 2007.
Unfortunately, they’ll have to replace the hard-running Dwayne Wright at
tailback. But four starters on the offensive line should help offset the lack of
experience at the skill positions. On defense, a unit that was
uncharacteristically generous in 2006 (86th overall) should be
stingier in 2007. The key to that unit will be finding some playmakers in the
secondary, who only return safety Marvin Haynes when it comes to starting
experience. Fresno State is angry, so look for that motivation to carry them
back to the level we’ve grown accustomed to them playing at.
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San Jose State (2006: 9-4, 5-3; returning starters- 13: 6 offensive, 7
defensive)
Dick Tomey has taken a program that many left for
dead a few seasons ago and infused some much-needed enthusiasm into it,
resulting in nine wins in 2006. Now comes the task of building on that progress,
and there’s enough talent in San Jose to make that happen. The best secondary
tandem in the WAC (and maybe one of the nation’s best) returns in the form of
corners Dwight Lowery and Christopher Owens. Lowery was an All-American in 2006,
racking up 48 tackles and nine interceptions. The best part about these two is
that while many offenses will look to avoid Lowery, Owens can more than hold his
own on the other side of the field. The defensive line also has a lot of
experience, with all three starters along with key reserves back on campus. The
key for the Spartans will be the further development of senior quarterback Adam
Tafralis. Experience in the backfield should help him out some, but Tafralis
will need to carry a young group of receivers in the early going if SJSU is to
improve their passing game (83rd in the nation in 2006). I’m not sure
that the Spartans can match or exceed their nine wins from a year ago, but this
team will be good. Don’t expect this program to revert to its doormat ways under
Coach Tomey.
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New Mexico State (2006: 4-8, 2-6; returning starters- 18: 9 offensive, 9
defensive)
While we know that the Aggies can put yards and
points on the board, there’s still the question as to whether or not the high
numbers can translate into wins. After going winless in 2005, Hal Mumme’s squad
made a four-game improvement last season, thanks in large part to quarterback
Chase Holbrook. The junior threw for more than 4,600 yards and 34 touchdowns in
2006, and there’s the distinct possibility that he can improve those numbers in
2007. But keeping him upright will be a chore for an offensive line that
surrendered 40 sacks in 2006. On defense, any signs of life from a unit that was
99th nationally last season would be appreciated. Unfortunately for
the Aggies, they have to replace their top two tacklers from 2006, including
linebacker Tim McManigal. NMSU got off to a good start in their 35-14 win over
Southeast Louisiana, so we’ll see if they can keep the momentum rolling.
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Louisiana Tech (2006: 3-10, 1-7; returning starters- 16: 6 offensive, 10
defensive)
Louisiana Tech begins the Derek Dooley era and
thankfully for Coach Dooley and his staff ten starters from last year’s defense
return. Of course, when that same group was the worst statistically in college
football, that may not be a good thing. But with a new scheme in place, look for
the group to make some sort of positive change. The offense performed well at
times in 2006, but there’s need for players at wide receiver to step up and make
plays on the perimeter. Running back Patrick Jackson could be one of the WAC’s
best by season’s end, but he’ll be spelled by Daniel Porter and Myke Compton
when he needs a breather. The schedule will be tough, especially for a team with
a new head coach, so senior quarterback Zac Champion will have to step up. Coach
Dooley arrives on campus expecting to build a winner, and if the administration
helps him make this a reality it can happen. Just not in 2007.
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Idaho (2006: 4-8, 3-5; returning starters- 16: 7 offensive, 9 defensive)
After one season in Moscow in which he brought some
excitement to the once-moribund Idaho program, Dennis Erickson packed up and
headed south to Arizona State. Rob Akey comes in for his first head coaching gig
at this level hoping to continue the progress. And giving the bright defensive
mind nine returning starters on that side of the ball is a good way to start.
David Voroba was an All-WAC selection at linebacker in 2006, and the change to
the 3-4 to take advantage of their linebacker depth should help the unit improve
on its 2006 numbers (103rd overall). On offense, redshirt freshman
Nathan Enderle won an open competition for the quarterback job, but replacing
receiver Wendell Octave and tight end Luke Smith-Anderson will be a tough task.
The most important thing for the Idaho program will be continuity at head coach,
as Akey is their fourth coach in the last five seasons.
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Utah State (2006: 1-11, 1-7; returning starters- 18: 7 offensive, 11
defensive)
Head coach Brent Guy will begin his third season in
Logan with all eleven starters on defense back in town. However, when it’s a
group that was 116th in total defense in 2006, that may not be a good
thing. On offense, Leon Jackson III is back at quarterback, and by the way
Leon’s also the punter. The Aggies are deep at wide receiver, led by senior
Kevin Robinson, who could be an All-WAC candidate due to his ability on both
offense and special teams. USU will have a new offensive scheme as well, with
Darrell Dickey coming in to run the offense. Dickey had nine seasons as the head
coach at North Texas, and most of those seasons were successful. It’s the last
three seasons in which the win totals dropped that have him in Logan instead of
Denton, Texas. The massive rebuilding job already underway at USU combined with
the new system could make it tough for the Aggies to improve on their 2006 win
total.
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